Okay, okay. I'm getting a minute to do something on the Whalen/Herseth poll results

The Argus Leader Reported at mid-morning while I was at work on the Herseth/Whalen race, and the anonymous commenters started nipping at my heels because I hadn't written on it yet.

For Gosh's sake, I am gainfully employed. Which means if I'm lucky, I get time to write at a breakneck pace before work, at lunch while I eat a PBJ, and after work. I'll even do it if I'm suffering from insomnia, as I sometimes do (hence the 3am updates).

Not to mention that I might find other things interesting. I like Constitutional races, legislative politics, and local stuff too - those are my bailiwick, moreso than the federal races. So, if I don't write about Herseth (including her hair or cutoff jeans) as often as you'd like, I'm sorry. It's my party, and I'll blog what I want to.

Anyway, due to popular demand, here's the Argus on the Whalen/Herseth Race:
Rep. Stephanie Herseth enjoys a commanding lead in name recognition and in voter preference over Republican Challenger Bruce Whalen in her reelection bid, according to a poll commissioned by the Argus Leader and KELO-TV.

If the election were held now, Herseth would lead Whalen 60 percent to 26 percent, with 14 percent of voters undecided.

Herseth Spokesman Russ Levsen says “it tells us that South Dakota approves of the job Stephanie is doing in Congress and wants to send her back for another term.”

But Whalen says poll results reflect more on the fact he is still laying the foundation for his Congressional run.

“It tells me we didn’t kick off our campaign until April fifth. The results are what we expected,” he said of the poll. “We still have about 97 days left before the election. We’re okay.”

The poll, conducted between July 24-26 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc., of Washington, D.C., questioned 800 registered voters statewide who indicated they were likely to cast a ballot in November. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

In favorable name recognition, Herseth outpaced Whalen 63 percent to 10 percent. All the other parameters of name recognition pointed out Herseth is more well-known than her challenger. Twenty percent of those polled recognized Herseth’s name unfavorably compared to 3 percent for Whalen.
Read it all here. And actually, I think Whalen brings up a point that I didn't think I heard from Billion (primarily because in the early article I read, they didn't ask the campaigns for a response) "we didn’t kick off our campaign until April fifth. The results are what we expected,” he said of the poll. “We still have about 97 days left before the election. We’re okay"

Should we put a lot of stock in these polls when the campaigns this year were late starts? Between Billion/Wiese jumping in when Volesky bailed out, or Bruce coming in as a late entrant himself, there may not have been enough time for the voters to become acquainted with them.

As I mentioned before when I commented on the Billion race, the Whalen campaign probably wasn't happy to see these numbers, but I have to give Bruce props for maintaining the positive attitude.

But I would also agree that early polls aren't going to show that the voters are well acquainted with him in this, his first run for statewide ofifce. So it's going to take money, media and elbow grease. And if Bruce keeps working as hard as he has been, the first two will hopefully follow the third, a quality he's shown in abundance.

(So there, I commented on it. Can I eat now?)

Comments

Anonymous said…
The polls just show what everyone already knew. Herseth has good name ID, Whalen has none.

The problem Whalen faces is that he must work two different angles: the first is to increase his name ID, while at the same time trying to get his message out.

A very tall order for any canidate.
Anonymous said…
In my opinion Whalen is about as likely to knock off Herseth as Billion is to knock off Rounds. Nice to see the underdogs working to make somewhat of a campaign out of it, but if I was going to bet money the incumbents will be re-elected in these races.
Anonymous said…
Hey PP what's for dinner? I noticed you haven't mentioned that the same polling service you used a number of posts back to show Billion behind, didn't even have Whalen on the radar. I think it had no data - stating there was no competitive house race in SD. Surely such an astute student of the game couldn't have missed that. And Bruce, "was" is the singular linking verb and "were" the plural. I heard a couple of sound bites where he says 'we was...'and that drives Sibson and I completely insane.
Anonymous said…
Well, it pains me to say it, but Bruce will get trounced. I do admire him for being the sacrificial lamb. The Republicans had darn well better reward Bruce in some way for putting himself out there when no one else had the guts to even try.
Steve Sibson said…
People thought I was nuts in 2002 saying Thuen would beat Daschle in 2004.

I say Whalen will beat Herseth in 2006. Abortion and tax cuts are the issues.

Will those issues be covered by the Argus Leader in a honest fashion? That is the key.
Dangerman said…
Sibi:

You are beyond nuts, the term bat #@%&* crazy comes to mind. Here is the deal, if what's his name gets 40% of the vote I will do whatever your sick mind has in store. If Lady Herseth trounces his unknown (rear), you have to shave that ridiculous steely dan beard off your face. So what do you think boy, where you at now.

Challenge laid Sibby

gonna pick it up
Jake Mortenson said…
Eat, my good sir, eat!
PP said…
Actually, I took my oldest daughter (who is here this week) to Guadalajara's for dinner.

I was sick of baloney and PBJ's, and she was sick of ramen noodles.
Anonymous said…
Considering, everybody in the state knows Herseth, I'm surprised (actually amazed) that she garned only 60 percent. I would've bet high 70s. But then again, maybe it's only 60 because ... everybody in the state knows Herseth.
Anonymous said…
Sibby,
Its just getting pathetic. When you were saying that Thune would beat Daschle, he had nearly 100% name ID already. This is a completely different situation. Whalen has about as much chance of beating Herseth as a rabbi has of getting elected pope.

PS: What does radical conservative kool-aid taste like? You obviously drank it.
McMurphy said…
"People thought I was nuts..." - Sibson.

Steve, they still do.
feasant said…
Hillary Jr only has 60%, that is very poor. Whalen will close the gap daily, the question is: Will he have enough time?

With Hillary Jr and henchman Levson sneaking around dodging debates, will Whalen be able to get his message out? More people need to know she is purposely evading debates.

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