Who's your man? (or woman)

One of the readers pointed out to me how many comments that the Dusty Johnson congressional post got, and asked me to revisit the issue, so here it is:

Who are your top two picks (either party) for the 2008 US Senate, and the 2008 Congressional Race and why?


scimitar said…
If Tim Johnson does not run, Stephanie will be the Democratic senate candidate, and should win the general against any challenger - even Rounds.

If Tim Johnson does not run, Brendan Johnson will probably be the Democratic House nominee, should he choose to run. I would give him better than even odds against Dykstra and Dusty Johnson in an average year for Democrats. His odds would increase further if 2008 is a good Democratic year, which it should be.

Brendan's race would be different against Dykstra than it would be against Dusty. Either way, I see Brendan putting together the organization and the voter coalition to win.

Of course, I am not writing off Tim Johnson. I do forsee him returning to Senate service. But serving and running for another 6-year term are two different things.
Anonymous said…
Dusty Johnson for House, Rounds for Senate.
a_big_liberal said…
I'm totally with scimitar. I very highly doubt that Tim Johnson will be running again. I'm guessing Stephanie will move to the Senate spot, and I think now would be a great time for Brendan Johnson to run.
Anonymous said…
Dykstra for Senate, Dusty for House
AL said…
I believe you are giving too much credit to Dykstra, what has he done? No one outside of Sioux Falls or the political realm no anything about that guy, at least Dusty has more name power.

Dykstra has also managed to align himself with the moderates and lib republicans in the House and Senate, so he is cutting the tail off of parts of his base.

Dusty has not been abrasive, nor has he been controversial.
Anonymous said…
Perhaps Shantal Krebs would throw her hat into the ring, or Kristie Noem. It may take another woman to knock out Herseth.
Anonymous said…
Rich Sattgast should step up and run for the US House.
Anonymous said…
You're so predictable, 3:24.
Anonymous said…
How much is Dusty paying you to promote his congressional candidacy.
Anonymous said…
If Matt Michels decided to run for the US Senate instead of the Governorship I would back him. I will also back him for the Governorship he he chooses to do so.
US House I have not made my mind up yet. There are people on the R side that could run and some of them are not elected officials. I have both genders included in my list.
As for Brendan, I do not feel he has done a thing for SD and I am one who DOES NOT believe in the "just because my Dad or Mom" did it I am entitled! I also do not care what political party a person is with in this matter.
I also predict that Tim Johnson will not run and hands over his money to his son.
Anonymous said…
Do not count out Scott Heidepriem for either House or Senate. He is very close to Tim Johnson and works with Brendan Johnson.

Don't expect to see both Brendan and Scott in the mix, but if Brendan is not there Scott may be.

Matt Michels would be very competitive if he runs, and nobody's sharper.
Anonymous said…
Here's the problem with running against Herseth -- anyone who is smart enough to give her a good run, is smart enough to know that she isn't going to be beat. Anyone dumb enough to think they can beat her isn't smart enough to run a good race.

With an open Governor's seat coming up, Tim Johnson running - at most - one more time, there's going to be reshuffling in the top offices in the state. Why would someone like Sattgast or Dusty blow their wads on a race against Herseth that will much more likely than not end up in defeat? Since we've had an At Large District, no incumbent has lost the House seat. And Herseth is doing a good job keeping the people back home happy. She won over 70% last time around.

She could be beat in an open Senate race against Rounds, and if she challenges Thune, she'd have a tough time beating the incumbent. But beyond that - the bench of state legistators and constitutional officers is pretty weak.
Anonymous said…
Dykstra, Dusty, Shantal or Kristie to beat Herseth? It ain't going to happen.

Maybe (although it's a big maybe) if we would have run someone besides Bruce Whalen last time around -- someone who actually could have done some damage -- we'd have a chance. But she got a free pass in 2006 and spent a lot of money to shore up her base. Herseth can thank Randy Frederick for his stellar recruiting job for her job security.
Anonymous said…
If Sen. Johnson does decide against running one thing is certain: Dusty Johnson does not have a shot in hell against Brendan Johnson, or Scott Heidepreim. Dusty is a young, arrogant, overly-ambitious political opportunist -- exactly the type of person we don't need in Washington, DC (or for that matter, Pierre).
Anonymous said…
I think Matt Michels or Dave Knudson would make great candidates for Senate or House. The rumblings I've heard is that they are thinking about Governor, but either of them would be stellar in DC.

As far as the Dems - I agree with what has been said. Stephanie will move up if Johnson doesn't run. The Dems will run Brendan J or Heidepreim for the vacant House seat. They may run Heidepreim in 2008, so he can challenge Thune in 2010 - that way Brendan could move into the House in 2010. My impression is that Heidepreim is more interested in Senator than Governor.
Anonymous said…
Rep. Herseth Sandlin is in for as long as she wants to be and for whatever office she seeks. I haven't heard anybody on this blog mention anyone who can beat Herseth Sandlin the next time around. If only one of them had stepped up to the plate last time, instead of the Republicans wasting time on Mr. Whalen, it might be a different story.
Anonymous said…
Run, Dusty, run! Your 15 minutes are about used up, so you might as well go out with a bang.
Anonymous said…
Here we go again. Shame on you 4:42 if you are a Republican. I don't know of anyone that has carried more water for the South Dakota Republican Party than Dusty Johnson. Arrogant? Who stands on Minnesota Avenue and waves at traffic with cheesy cut outs of himself? I know a lot of politicians that would be "above that." He's got a good sense of humor about himself and is willing to do what it takes to win. Someone shows some ambition and all of a sudden they have ill motives. A person is articulate and can speak to any audience in SD and they are "arrogant." Political opportunist? Come on. Running against a seasoned entrenched incumbant with 100 times more name ID than you is not what I would call an opportunist. In fact he risked a lot by running against Jim Burg and should have gotten beat if history were to rule the day. Maybe you should focus on Stephanie Herseth and how she was able to fool the people of South Dakota into voting for her. She defines the phrase "political opportunist."
Anonymous said…
She defines the phrase "political opportunist."

Yeah, like when she took on that easy race against Janklow.
Anonymous said…
If Sen. Johnson does not run, Stephanie will move up. The Republican's will select Rounds to run. Rounds will struggle as this will be a real race. To win, he will have to convice many people that Dennis Daugaard is ready to be Governor. He will also have to a real position on some issues.
The house will be a free for all. The democrats will probably pick Brendan Johnson, if he wants it. He will do well. The Republicans will nominate Dale Bell and beat themselves up in the process. Net result...nothing will change.
Anonymous said…
Gary Hansen will announce that he is interested in running but never will run.
Dusty will run.
Dyskstra will run.
Bob Gray will run.
Darrin Smith will run.
Stan Adelstein will run and PP will have a field day.
Leslie Unruh will run.
Ron Volesky will run.
Anonymous said…
5:25 Remember Janklow didn't announce he was running until March 2002. Boy was Stephanie surprised.
Anonymous said…
I'm always amazed what a east river bias this blog has.

Not one person, (except Adelstien which was a joke) is listed as a contender.

There are many good canidates from west river, but this blog seems to stop at the river.
Anonymous said…
5:25 Stephanie announced in October 2001 that she would be running for the open house seat. I would say she is a political opportunist.
Anonymous said…
Three points:

1 - I don't think anyone who knows Dusty Johnson would call him "arrogant." He is smart, enthusiastic, and confident, but I think it would be unfortunate if anyone with these qualities is regarded to be "arrogant."

2 - Rounds is a strong candidate, but he would obviously have his toughest race against Stephanie or Tim Johnson. But I don't expect that Daugaard becoming Governor would be a big issue in the election - I think he is well-regarded and thought the be capable.

3 - The reason that so few West River candidates come up is because they are so seldom nominated or elected. Think it through - Thune is a glaring example but he hadn't live WR for years.

And by the way, I don't haven automatic aversion to Stan, but I'd be shocked if he ran and would expect that he would not have much success if he did.
anneme said…
First of all running a candidate like Dusty Johnson for the either the house or the senate would be a big mistake for the Republican party in my mind. He may be good at what he does, but he has the "my shit dont stink" attitude that can come back to haunt him. (Ive known him for enough years to say this) If Senator Johnson does not seek reelection then Representative Herseth Sandlin will be the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate. If this happens the Heideprim or Brendan Johnson will be the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate. If Governor Rounds chooses to leave his governorship to run for the Senate I think he will lose A LOT of support. Plus he will have to run against somebody that not only has a good record, but also that has proven that she is the moderate answer for our state. I do not know who would make a good Republican candidate for house. My best bet would be Bob Gray or Matt Michels. I feel that no matter where the Democratic party runs Representative Herseth Sandlin she will dominate because she has the answers that our state needs even if some people dont even realize this. This is just my opinion though. Each person has a right to their own opinion and I will never say that I am definately right.
Anonymous said…
Potential House Candidates:

Mark Mickelson
Marty Jackley
Eric Bogue
Anonymous said…
I think, to a certain degree, EVERY politician has the "my shit doesn't stink" attitude. Certainly Stephanie does.

And I just have to say - regardless of who does or doesn't run, I still just don't think Rounds will run for anything else. The argument that he will run assumes that he, like all politicians, is always trying to get elected to something. But he's always seemed to me like he had no ambition beyond being governor.
Anonymous said…
My picks-

Johnson will not run.

Rounds will defeat Steph for Senate.

Dusty beats Joel in the Rep. primary, and wins hands down over Nancy Turbak in the general..

Nancy married a big money lawyer from the east coast, so is going to take the first opportunity she gets to land a job in DC. I don't know where this "arrogant" label came from for Dusty, but he can't hold a candle to Nancy in that dept.

And Dennis D. beats Scotty for Gov.
Anonymous said…
we have to convince bob gray to run for something. his wife is HOT, and smart, and will tell him what he needs to know on the issues.

(no, im not bobs wife.)
John T. said…
As to the possibility of Rep. Dykstra running for Congressional office, I believe I can speak for most of the people in this state when I say... "Who?"
Anonymous said…
7:17, is that you Lee S? I figured with an inappropriate comment towards a women there's a good chance it is you. And it's funny no one is putting your name out there yet.

The person who most wants johnson to not run is thune, so he doesn't have to face herseth-sandwedge in 2010.

Dykstra? For the 33rd time, stop, please, we know he needs a job but so does Tim Rounds and that doesn't make either of them viable candidates for anything.

Dusty can come out of the primary in 08 for an open house seat if that available, provided his mom keeps blogging as is obvious here.

2010 for the keys to the Great Western Bank Mansion will be interesting. Sioux Falls lawyers on both sides, vestiges of SD royalty, nuts and loons, it will be the race to watch. Who won't win is easier to predict than who will...
Anonymous said…
Lee S is obviously not posting tonight, because no "anonymous posters" have made the "Lee for Governor" or "Lee for Congress" pitch!
Anonymous said…
I'm surprised at the reaction to the comment re: Dusty's arrogance. Anyone that's spent any substantive time with him knows that's true.

I will say that he is smart, and he knows in the hypothetical matchups currently being discussed he's really got no chance. He may be a heavyweight intellectual, but he's a long, long way from capturing the hearts and minds of South Dakota.
Anonymous said…
Rounds Senate in 08. He beats Herseth-Sandbox in a general. He's the only one that can. Tim Johnson is not running. Dykstra is a non-issue. If Rounds doesn't run H-Sandbox is in.

If you're asking about an "open" House seat the options are limitless. All here is mere speculation:

The Dems only have Brendan Johnson and he's not ready. Ask him. Most Dem legislators are non-issues. Other Constitutional Office holders are non-issues.

Dusty Johnson. Yes, he's a climber. But he's proven he can win a statewide race. Young family.

Bob Gray. Electable. Smart, young, senate pro-tem. Tied into the Barnett money machine. Young family.

Shantel Krebs. Hott. Hubby now tied into Rounds money machine.

Rob Skjonsberg. Runs state government. Engineer of the Rounds money machine. Young family.

Russ Olson. New guy from Madison. Will go places. Business likes him.

Matt Zabel. Prospect last time around. Good lookin'. Brains of the Thune outfit.

Jim Seward. American hero. If nobody has asked him somebody should. Absolute star.

Noodle on that.
Anonymous said…
Once poster asked why there aren't any west river candidates. State demographics and history.

Only 1/3 of the voters live West River.

Name the last West River Republican to win a state Congressional or Senate Race? Jim Abnor in 1980. Since then, Clint Roberts lost in 1982, Dale Bell lost in 1984 and 1986. Abnor lost in 1986. Don Frankenfeld lost in 1990.
Anonymous said…
The big question: when will Bob Newland turn this string into a hemp rant?
Anonymous said…
9:39 - You've given him an opening!
Anonymous said…
Jim Seward is a darn near perfect candidate. Would love to see him run for office.
Anonymous said…
I'll tell you who coule beat Mrs. Sandlin. Serious as a heart-attack, and if this person runs, Mrs. Sandlin will have one.

Drum roll......

Cheryl Bogue.

Not only would she beat Sandlin, she'd batter her.

Bam! Top that!
Anonymous said…
9:46, Jim Seward ran for state house and came in 4th out of 4. He worked his ass off too.
Anonymous said…
When and from where did Seward run for state house?
scimitar said…
Cheryl Bogue - not a chance.

Plenty of ammunition against her. I can think of two unrelated skunks at her garden party - either of which standing alone would wreck her party.

Mrs. Bogue's Republican opponents would make mincemeat of her in the primary. If they didn't, Herseth-Sandlin would.

Oh, I hope she runs!
Anonymous said…
Cheryl would be a hell of a candidate!

Shitmar, you're probably pissed at her for the way she conducted herself on the parole board. Did she fail to vote in favor of letting a good democrat out early?
Alan Aker said…
Rounds won't run. He'll wait and run for governor again in 2018.

Viable Republican candidates not mentioned below: Gary Hansen and Larry Rhoden.

The West River Curse is imaginary. In a statewide race, there's always a hometown loyalty factor for voters,but there are more Black Hills voters who would vote for a candidate just because he's from the Black Hills than there are East River voters who would do likewise.

If anything, a Black Hills address is a plus, especially in a Republican primary. The Hills' percentage of Republican voters is far higher than its percentage of state population.

There is a group of voters fixated on what's in the ag bill, and they tend to vote for the candidate most likely to spend political capital on that, but they'll be just as happy voting for a Presho wheat farmer as a Milbank soybean grower. That's not an East River - West River thing.

This type of voter's importance is vastly overrated and is steadily declining. They're lousy at donating to campaigns, but great at showing up.

The main rivalry is Sioux Falls vs. the rest of East River. A Sioux Falls address is a handicap in an open statewide race.
Anonymous said…
I think we saw what Rounds can do in his first run for governor. Nobody saw him winning that primary, but he just nailed it in the debates. He did something politicians aren't supposed to do... answer the darn questions. I'll tell you right now, that's what sealed my vote. SD voters are pretty good at identifying BS and spin, and they showed it there.

I understand that Rounds enjoys being governor, but I do think he can be convinced that beating Herseth is better for SD because we will elect another qualified republican for governor, but he is our shot at beating Herseth. No, I don't think Johnson will run again. I feel terrible for him and his family about his condition, but in the end, I don't think he will make a full recovery, and no matter the will, we need someone there who is at the top of their game.

Herseth may be wildly popular, but so is Rounds, perhaps more so, and he is a republican. SD voters will go with him.

The House race is tough. I expect another young person to be elected. Look at the history: Johnson, Thune, Janklow (not young, but at the time, he could have run for anything and won), and then Herseth. The SD House seat is made for young up-and-comers. About my only prediction is that it'll be a Johnson. Brendan or Dusty. I would normally say Dusty, but SD has proven that they like a split representation in Washindton. With Thune and Rounds in the Senate, they'll want a Dem in the House. No matter how much I hate to say it, I see Brendan Johnson winning.
Anonymous said…
Talent will overcome party affiliation every time. That's why Rounds has no shot against SHS. She's got talent. He doesn't.
Anonymous said…
what about a business leader instead of a politician- that is what polls are showing people want for President.

Dave Bochrany? Alan Nelson? Frank Simpson?

Feel free to add to the business list!
Anonymous said…
Sooner or later, we're going to hear his name in politics... Kelby

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