Here's some of the information on the Corson County Charges: COUNT I That on or about December of 2005, in the County of Corson, State of South Dakota, Ted Alvin Klaudt did commit the public offense of SECOND DEGREE RAPE (SDCL 22-22-1(2)) in that he did accomplish an act of sexual penetration with his foster daughter, A.M., through the use of force or coercion; and as to COUNT II That on or about July or August of 2006, in the County of Corson, State of South Dakota, Ted Alvin Klaudt did commit the public offense of SECOND DEGREE RAPE (SDCL 22-22-1(2)) in that he did accomplish an act of sexual penetration with his foster daughter, A.M., through the use of force or coercion; and as to COUNT III That on or about July or August of 2006, in the County of Corson, State of South Dakota, Ted Alvin Klaudt did commit the public offense of SECOND DEGREE RAPE (SDCL 22-22-1(2)) in that he did accomplish an act of sexual penetration, separate and distinct from the act alleged in Count II, with
Comments
If Tim Johnson does not run, Brendan Johnson will probably be the Democratic House nominee, should he choose to run. I would give him better than even odds against Dykstra and Dusty Johnson in an average year for Democrats. His odds would increase further if 2008 is a good Democratic year, which it should be.
Brendan's race would be different against Dykstra than it would be against Dusty. Either way, I see Brendan putting together the organization and the voter coalition to win.
Of course, I am not writing off Tim Johnson. I do forsee him returning to Senate service. But serving and running for another 6-year term are two different things.
Dykstra has also managed to align himself with the moderates and lib republicans in the House and Senate, so he is cutting the tail off of parts of his base.
Dusty has not been abrasive, nor has he been controversial.
US House I have not made my mind up yet. There are people on the R side that could run and some of them are not elected officials. I have both genders included in my list.
As for Brendan, I do not feel he has done a thing for SD and I am one who DOES NOT believe in the "just because my Dad or Mom" did it I am entitled! I also do not care what political party a person is with in this matter.
I also predict that Tim Johnson will not run and hands over his money to his son.
Don't expect to see both Brendan and Scott in the mix, but if Brendan is not there Scott may be.
Matt Michels would be very competitive if he runs, and nobody's sharper.
With an open Governor's seat coming up, Tim Johnson running - at most - one more time, there's going to be reshuffling in the top offices in the state. Why would someone like Sattgast or Dusty blow their wads on a race against Herseth that will much more likely than not end up in defeat? Since we've had an At Large District, no incumbent has lost the House seat. And Herseth is doing a good job keeping the people back home happy. She won over 70% last time around.
She could be beat in an open Senate race against Rounds, and if she challenges Thune, she'd have a tough time beating the incumbent. But beyond that - the bench of state legistators and constitutional officers is pretty weak.
Maybe (although it's a big maybe) if we would have run someone besides Bruce Whalen last time around -- someone who actually could have done some damage -- we'd have a chance. But she got a free pass in 2006 and spent a lot of money to shore up her base. Herseth can thank Randy Frederick for his stellar recruiting job for her job security.
As far as the Dems - I agree with what has been said. Stephanie will move up if Johnson doesn't run. The Dems will run Brendan J or Heidepreim for the vacant House seat. They may run Heidepreim in 2008, so he can challenge Thune in 2010 - that way Brendan could move into the House in 2010. My impression is that Heidepreim is more interested in Senator than Governor.
Yeah, like when she took on that easy race against Janklow.
The house will be a free for all. The democrats will probably pick Brendan Johnson, if he wants it. He will do well. The Republicans will nominate Dale Bell and beat themselves up in the process. Net result...nothing will change.
Dusty will run.
Dyskstra will run.
Bob Gray will run.
Darrin Smith will run.
Stan Adelstein will run and PP will have a field day.
Leslie Unruh will run.
Ron Volesky will run.
Not one person, (except Adelstien which was a joke) is listed as a contender.
There are many good canidates from west river, but this blog seems to stop at the river.
1 - I don't think anyone who knows Dusty Johnson would call him "arrogant." He is smart, enthusiastic, and confident, but I think it would be unfortunate if anyone with these qualities is regarded to be "arrogant."
2 - Rounds is a strong candidate, but he would obviously have his toughest race against Stephanie or Tim Johnson. But I don't expect that Daugaard becoming Governor would be a big issue in the election - I think he is well-regarded and thought the be capable.
3 - The reason that so few West River candidates come up is because they are so seldom nominated or elected. Think it through - Thune is a glaring example but he hadn't live WR for years.
And by the way, I don't haven automatic aversion to Stan, but I'd be shocked if he ran and would expect that he would not have much success if he did.
Mark Mickelson
Marty Jackley
Eric Bogue
And I just have to say - regardless of who does or doesn't run, I still just don't think Rounds will run for anything else. The argument that he will run assumes that he, like all politicians, is always trying to get elected to something. But he's always seemed to me like he had no ambition beyond being governor.
Johnson will not run.
Rounds will defeat Steph for Senate.
Dusty beats Joel in the Rep. primary, and wins hands down over Nancy Turbak in the general..
Nancy married a big money lawyer from the east coast, so is going to take the first opportunity she gets to land a job in DC. I don't know where this "arrogant" label came from for Dusty, but he can't hold a candle to Nancy in that dept.
And Dennis D. beats Scotty for Gov.
(no, im not bobs wife.)
The person who most wants johnson to not run is thune, so he doesn't have to face herseth-sandwedge in 2010.
Dykstra? For the 33rd time, stop, please, we know he needs a job but so does Tim Rounds and that doesn't make either of them viable candidates for anything.
Dusty can come out of the primary in 08 for an open house seat if that available, provided his mom keeps blogging as is obvious here.
2010 for the keys to the Great Western Bank Mansion will be interesting. Sioux Falls lawyers on both sides, vestiges of SD royalty, nuts and loons, it will be the race to watch. Who won't win is easier to predict than who will...
I will say that he is smart, and he knows in the hypothetical matchups currently being discussed he's really got no chance. He may be a heavyweight intellectual, but he's a long, long way from capturing the hearts and minds of South Dakota.
If you're asking about an "open" House seat the options are limitless. All here is mere speculation:
The Dems only have Brendan Johnson and he's not ready. Ask him. Most Dem legislators are non-issues. Other Constitutional Office holders are non-issues.
Dusty Johnson. Yes, he's a climber. But he's proven he can win a statewide race. Young family.
Bob Gray. Electable. Smart, young, senate pro-tem. Tied into the Barnett money machine. Young family.
Shantel Krebs. Hott. Hubby now tied into Rounds money machine.
Rob Skjonsberg. Runs state government. Engineer of the Rounds money machine. Young family.
Russ Olson. New guy from Madison. Will go places. Business likes him.
Matt Zabel. Prospect last time around. Good lookin'. Brains of the Thune outfit.
Jim Seward. American hero. If nobody has asked him somebody should. Absolute star.
Noodle on that.
Only 1/3 of the voters live West River.
Name the last West River Republican to win a state Congressional or Senate Race? Jim Abnor in 1980. Since then, Clint Roberts lost in 1982, Dale Bell lost in 1984 and 1986. Abnor lost in 1986. Don Frankenfeld lost in 1990.
Drum roll......
Cheryl Bogue.
Not only would she beat Sandlin, she'd batter her.
Bam! Top that!
Plenty of ammunition against her. I can think of two unrelated skunks at her garden party - either of which standing alone would wreck her party.
Mrs. Bogue's Republican opponents would make mincemeat of her in the primary. If they didn't, Herseth-Sandlin would.
Oh, I hope she runs!
Shitmar, you're probably pissed at her for the way she conducted herself on the parole board. Did she fail to vote in favor of letting a good democrat out early?
Viable Republican candidates not mentioned below: Gary Hansen and Larry Rhoden.
The West River Curse is imaginary. In a statewide race, there's always a hometown loyalty factor for voters,but there are more Black Hills voters who would vote for a candidate just because he's from the Black Hills than there are East River voters who would do likewise.
If anything, a Black Hills address is a plus, especially in a Republican primary. The Hills' percentage of Republican voters is far higher than its percentage of state population.
There is a group of voters fixated on what's in the ag bill, and they tend to vote for the candidate most likely to spend political capital on that, but they'll be just as happy voting for a Presho wheat farmer as a Milbank soybean grower. That's not an East River - West River thing.
This type of voter's importance is vastly overrated and is steadily declining. They're lousy at donating to campaigns, but great at showing up.
The main rivalry is Sioux Falls vs. the rest of East River. A Sioux Falls address is a handicap in an open statewide race.
I understand that Rounds enjoys being governor, but I do think he can be convinced that beating Herseth is better for SD because we will elect another qualified republican for governor, but he is our shot at beating Herseth. No, I don't think Johnson will run again. I feel terrible for him and his family about his condition, but in the end, I don't think he will make a full recovery, and no matter the will, we need someone there who is at the top of their game.
Herseth may be wildly popular, but so is Rounds, perhaps more so, and he is a republican. SD voters will go with him.
The House race is tough. I expect another young person to be elected. Look at the history: Johnson, Thune, Janklow (not young, but at the time, he could have run for anything and won), and then Herseth. The SD House seat is made for young up-and-comers. About my only prediction is that it'll be a Johnson. Brendan or Dusty. I would normally say Dusty, but SD has proven that they like a split representation in Washindton. With Thune and Rounds in the Senate, they'll want a Dem in the House. No matter how much I hate to say it, I see Brendan Johnson winning.
Dave Bochrany? Alan Nelson? Frank Simpson?
Feel free to add to the business list!