Thar's Napoli trouble in them Black Hills.

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Political Button collector (and reporter) Dave Kranz noted in his column in today's Argus Leader that Bill Napoli may face a challenge at the next primary election from Representative Alice McCoy:
A Republican primary is shaping up in Rapid City's District 35. State Rep. Alice McCoy is term-limited and will run in a 2006 Senate primary against two-term incumbent Sen. Bill Napoli. McCoy says she wants to go to the Senate to continue holding down taxes. Napoli will seek a third term. He is pushing a ballot issue that would cap property tax assessments and stop them from going up.
This could shape up to be an interesting race. This last election, there was a similar situation where Lee Schoenbeck was challenged by Claire Konold. Claire wanted to continue in the legislature, but was termed out. Claire was well funded, including $1000 from one of Stan Adelstein's Political Action Committees.

But he was ill prepared for the fundraising juggernaut of Lee Schoenbeck.

Lee raised $18,800 and spent about $21k. Claire raised $11,700 and spent $9200. (It kind of bears out one of my lessons from a prior post about bringing a knife to a gun fight.) Lee absolutely creamed Konold at the ballot box, 2394 to 1198 - right at 2 to 1.

So what's the prospect of Alice McCoy taking on Bill Napoli? Let's take a look at the tale of the tape...

As for fundraising, Alice isn't bad at raising money. This last election she raised $9100 when Bill only raised $7300. But Bill also spent $8164 to her $6831. Last election, Bill Napoli beat Mike Reardon 5174 to 2914. Alice had a narrow lead in the four way house race at 3774 (Jeff Haverly 3752, Mike Howe 3057, Theresa Spry 2292).*

(*All fundraising data and election statistics courtesy of the SD Secretary of State's website)

What does the future hold? More than anything, I think you have to look at the pre-existing name ID. I would bet that Bill's name ID is extremely high, at a time when some people might not realize that Alice represents them.

I anticipate some in the media might sell this as the "moderate wing of the party" versus "the conservative wing." Whether it does or not, if Dave's prediction holds true, this might be THE election to watch next June. (I'm putting a beer on Bill to win)

Comments

Anonymous said…
But he was ill prepared for the fundraising juggernaut of Lee Schoenbeck.

Lee raised $18,800 and spent about $21k. Claire raised $11,700 and spent $9200.
It's refreshing that, despite a $30 million US Senate campaign, this still passes for a lot of money in a South Dakota race.
Also (from another post in your blog): glad to see you aren't opposed to Republican primaries. Given the one-party nature of SD politics, the Republican primary is often the only way a Democrat can be elected in many districts.
And, as to blog changes: lose the black background and white letters, or at least give viewers the chance to reverse the color scheme.
4:56 PM
Anonymous said…
hey--thanks for listening about the color scheme!
6:33 PM
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