What can we say about the races coming this year?
I did a little analysis of the politicl race lineup so far this year. Granted, it may change and there may be a few more candidates coming out of the woodwork. But for all the Democrats bluster, there are still quite a few gaps to be filled. Check out the Senate races filed so far:
By my count, I'm seeing 4 Senate races that the GOP has yet to field a candidate for. As of tonight, it's 31 out of 35 - and that isn't bad! I suspect one or two of those will be filled by next Tuesday. But compare that to the SDDP's efforts.
As of tonight, they've got 15 of 35 candidate slots filled for the Senate. Sure, we'll likely see another 5 or so come in - but if it isn't any more than that, it leaves a devastating gap in their Senate efforts.
The surest way to lose an election is to not run. And if they're not going to field candidates in 12-15 races, they can expect to remain in the minority. And it gets even worse for the House:
As of tonight, Dems have 36 seats conested of 70 total. The GOP is missing a few here and there, and I expect many of those to come in, likely excepting districts 1,2 & 15. Again, if you are only putting up candidates for half of the races, don't expect to take control of a chamber.
As mentioned before, there are still a great number of legislative seats left to fill, and we can expect quite a few petitions to come in over the cource of the next week. But unless numbers move significantly, don't expect a turnover in Legislative control this next fall.
If this trend continues, the chess pieces may change shape, but come next January, expect that the GOP will be fully in control of the board.
District | Chamber | Party | Name |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Senate | Democratic | Hanson, Gary D. |
2 | Senate | Democratic | Hundstad, Jim |
3 | Senate | Republican | Latterell, Isaac |
3 | Senate | Republican | Sutton, Duane Ormun |
4 | Senate | Democratic | Peterson, Jim |
4 | Senate | Republican | Diedrich, Larry |
5 | Senate | Democratic | Turbak, Nancy J. |
5 | Senate | Republican | Arnold, Dennis |
5 | Senate | Republican | Konold, Claire B. |
6 | Senate | Republican | Greenfield, Brock L. |
6 | Senate | Republican | Holbeck, James |
7 | Senate | Democratic | Widvey, Harold |
7 | Senate | Republican | Smidt, Orville B. |
8 | Senate | Democratic | Sutton, Dan |
8 | Senate | Republican | Toates, John |
9 | Senate | Democratic | Spader, Duane |
9 | Senate | Republican | Dempster, Tom |
10 | Senate | Republican | Abdallah, Gene G. |
10 | Senate | Republican | Alvine, Frank |
11 | Senate | Constitution | Bartlett, D. Scott |
11 | Senate | Republican | Gant, Jason M. |
12 | Senate | Republican | Earley, William F. |
13 | Senate | Republican | Kelly, Dick |
14 | Senate | Constitution | Scott, William L. |
14 | Senate | Republican | Knudson, Dave |
15 | Senate | Democratic | Koetzle, Gil |
16 | Senate | Republican | Albers, Kenneth D. |
17 | Senate | Democratic | Nesselhuf, Ben |
17 | Senate | Republican | Adams, Nathan J. |
18 | Senate | Republican | Hunhoff, Jean |
19 | Senate | Democratic | Kloucek, Frank J. |
20 | Senate | Republican | Olson, Ed |
21 | Senate | Republican | Garnos, Cooper |
22 | Senate | Republican | Hansen, Tom |
23 | Senate | Republican | Duenwald, Jay L. |
24 | Senate | Republican | Gray, Bob |
25 | Senate | Republican | Kooistra, Clarence |
26 | Senate | Democratic | Simpson, John J. |
26 | Senate | Republican | Koskan, John |
27 | Senate | Democratic | Two Bulls, Theresa (Huck) |
27 | Senate | Republican | Hanrahan, Craig L. |
28 | Senate | Democratic | Emery, Steve |
28 | Senate | Democratic | Maher, Ryan |
28 | Senate | Republican | Klaudt, Ted A. |
28 | Senate | Republican | Wetz, Kenneth |
29 | Senate | Republican | McNenny, Kenneth |
30 | Senate | Democratic | Ratliff, Catherine |
30 | Senate | Republican | Lintz, Jim |
31 | Senate | Independent | Ballert, Karen |
31 | Senate | Republican | Apa, Jerry |
32 | Senate | Republican | Adelstein, Stanford M. |
32 | Senate | Republican | Schwiesow, Elli |
33 | Senate | Democratic | Finch, Dennis |
33 | Senate | Republican | Duniphan, J.P. |
33 | Senate | Republican | Schmidt, Dennis |
34 | Senate | Republican | McCracken, Royal "Mac" |
35 | Senate | Republican | McCoy, Alice L |
35 | Senate | Republican | Napoli, William "Bill" |
By my count, I'm seeing 4 Senate races that the GOP has yet to field a candidate for. As of tonight, it's 31 out of 35 - and that isn't bad! I suspect one or two of those will be filled by next Tuesday. But compare that to the SDDP's efforts.
As of tonight, they've got 15 of 35 candidate slots filled for the Senate. Sure, we'll likely see another 5 or so come in - but if it isn't any more than that, it leaves a devastating gap in their Senate efforts.
The surest way to lose an election is to not run. And if they're not going to field candidates in 12-15 races, they can expect to remain in the minority. And it gets even worse for the House:
District | Chamber | Party | Name |
---|---|---|---|
1 | House | Democratic | Halverson, Clayton |
1 | House | Democratic | Sigdestad, David |
2 | House | Democratic | Dennert, H. Paul |
2 | House | Democratic | Elliott, Burt |
2 | House | Democratic | Graham, John |
3 | House | Democratic | Black, Thomas E. |
3 | House | Republican | Novstrup, Al |
3 | House | Republican | Novstrup, David |
4 | House | Democratic | Street, Steve |
4 | House | Republican | Nosbush, Mary E. |
4 | House | Republican | Rausch, Val |
5 | House | Democratic | Mittelstedt, Rich |
5 | House | Republican | Faehn, Bob |
5 | House | Republican | Koistinen, Al |
6 | House | Republican | Nelson, Paul |
6 | House | Republican | Noem, Kristi |
6 | House | Republican | Stormo, Samantha |
7 | House | Republican | Pitts, Carol A. |
7 | House | Republican | Tidemann, Larry J. |
8 | House | Democratic | Gassman, David B. |
8 | House | Democratic | Lange, Gerald F. |
8 | House | Republican | Olson, Russell |
9 | House | Democratic | Engels, Richard A. |
9 | House | Democratic | Roberts, Elaine A. |
9 | House | Republican | Dressen, Katy |
9 | House | Republican | Peters, Deb |
10 | House | Republican | Hunt, Roger |
11 | House | Republican | Weems, Keri K. |
11 | House | Republican | Willadsen, Mark K |
12 | House | Democratic | Kniffen, Gregory |
12 | House | Libertarian | Anderson, John I. |
12 | House | Republican | Henkin, Ann |
12 | House | Republican | Steele, Manny |
13 | House | Democratic | Blake, Susan |
13 | House | Democratic | Thompson, Bill |
13 | House | Republican | Heineman, Phyllis M. |
14 | House | Democratic | Feinstein, Marc |
14 | House | Republican | Cutler, Joni |
14 | House | Republican | Tornow, R. Shawn |
15 | House | Democratic | Glenski, Mary |
15 | House | Democratic | Miles, Kathleen |
15 | House | Republican | Allis, Gregory P. |
16 | House | Republican | Dykstra, Joel D. |
16 | House | Republican | Lederman, Daniel |
17 | House | Democratic | Norin, Patricia A. |
17 | House | Democratic | Nygaard, Eldon E. |
17 | House | Republican | Boomgarden, Jamie M. |
17 | House | Republican | Schafer, Donna |
18 | House | Democratic | Gleich, Robert J. |
18 | House | Democratic | Moore, Garry A. |
18 | House | Republican | Gilson, Charlotte "Charlii" |
19 | House | Libertarian | Martin, Alexander |
19 | House | Republican | Jerke, Gary |
20 | House | Democratic | Steele, Susan N. |
20 | House | Republican | Carson, Lance A. |
20 | House | Republican | Vehle, Mike |
21 | House | Democratic | Kastner, Diane L. |
21 | House | Republican | Deadrick, Thomas J. |
21 | House | Republican | Juhnke, Kent |
22 | House | Democratic | Burg, Quinten L. |
22 | House | Democratic | Hargens, Dale |
22 | House | Republican | Haeder, Joshua R |
23 | House | Republican | Davis, Justin J. |
23 | House | Republican | Hackl, Tom |
24 | House | Republican | Olson, Ryan P. |
24 | House | Republican | Rounds, Tim G. |
25 | House | Democratic | Kroger, Mike |
25 | House | Republican | Ammon, Greg |
25 | House | Republican | Rave, Tim |
26A | House | Democratic | Lucas, Larry J. |
26B | House | Democratic | Glover, Thomas J. |
27 | House | Democratic | Bradford, Jim |
27 | House | Republican | DeVries, Mark |
28A | House | Democratic | Van Norman, Thomas J. |
28A | House | Republican | Hunt, Everett |
28B | House | Republican | Drown, Bob |
28B | House | Republican | Olson, Betty |
29 | House | Republican | Brunner, Thomas J. |
29 | House | Republican | Hunter, Ray |
29 | House | Republican | LaRue, Maurice |
29 | House | Republican | Rhoden, Larry |
30 | House | Democratic | Bloomer, Jerry |
30 | House | Democratic | Brown, Franz K |
30 | House | Democratic | Hanson, Rick |
30 | House | Republican | Howie, Gordon |
30 | House | Republican | Pederson, Gordon |
31 | House | Democratic | Paris, Dinah |
31 | House | Republican | Hills, Tom |
31 | House | Republican | Turbiville, Charles M. |
32 | House | Democratic | Hemmingsen, Pamela K |
33 | House | Republican | Buckingham, Michael |
33 | House | Republican | Van Etten, Don |
34 | House | Republican | Lust, David |
34 | House | Republican | McLaughlin, Ed |
35 | House | Democratic | Wudtke, Laurie |
35 | House | Republican | Gunderson, Dale E. |
35 | House | Republican | Haverly, Jeffrey |
35 | House | Republican | Hendrickson, Lyle |
35 | House | Republican | Kirkeby, Mark |
As of tonight, Dems have 36 seats conested of 70 total. The GOP is missing a few here and there, and I expect many of those to come in, likely excepting districts 1,2 & 15. Again, if you are only putting up candidates for half of the races, don't expect to take control of a chamber.
As mentioned before, there are still a great number of legislative seats left to fill, and we can expect quite a few petitions to come in over the cource of the next week. But unless numbers move significantly, don't expect a turnover in Legislative control this next fall.
If this trend continues, the chess pieces may change shape, but come next January, expect that the GOP will be fully in control of the board.
Comments
Any commentary on the circuit judge races? There are 2 in the 2nd, 1 in the 3rd, 1 in the 4th, 1 in the 5th, and 2 in the 6th. That means 5 out of 7 circuits will be voting on judges while also voting on JAIL.
I am not expecting that we Democrats will take control of the legislature--yet. It will take a cycle or two or three even. However, I think there will be significant inroads made this November and functioning Democratic organizations in Minnehaha and other counties. That will be important.
Also, I fully expect a new doctor in the Big House by the Goose Pond in Pierre come January 2007.
Todd Epp
Go Democrats Editor
S.D. Watch http://thunewatch.squarespace.com