AP: Herseth is holding a slight monetary advantage at the moment
The Associated Press is reporting tonight that Stephanie Herseth holds a $650,000 lead on what's in the bank over her opponent, Republican Bruce Whalen. From the Aberdeen American News website:
In second-quarter reports filed to the Federal Election Commission, Herseth reports having raised a total of $1.2 million, with about $700,000 in the bank. She raised almost $114,000 from April through June.
Whalen has raised a total of $84,000, with about $44,000 of that raised in the second quarter of this year. He has about $50,000 in the bank.
Read it all here. And before you all pooh-pooh the figures, keep in mind that Mark Barnett and Steve Kirby each had more of a monetary lead over Governor Mike Rounds in the 2002 Primary.
Comments
My point is that we shouldn't count him out of the game because of her lead, and that while money is pretty significant, it's not an end-all-be-all.
A candidate running the right race at the right time can win.
My comments were referencing my humble opinion that comparing Governor Rounds's victory in the 2002 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY for GOVERNOR with NO INCUMBENT and MULTIPLE CONTESTANTS to this GENERAL ELECTION for the U.S. HOUSE against ONE OPPONENT, an INCUMBENT no less, is unfair and illogical.
While we shouldn't count Whalen out, I would go out on a very sturdy limb to suggest that he is in a very deep hole at the moment. Analyzing the monetary situation alone reveals this, much less the success rate of incumbent house members.
Not only is there incumbency in the general (which gives Herseth a massive advantage), but there is also a much higher (and theoretically more representative sample) voter turnout for a general election compared to a primary. Most of the people who vote in primaries are you and me: people on the relative extremes of either side, who pay attention to local/state politics.
Looking at fundraising underdogs that have won in the past (Isaac Lattrel, Elli, and Rounds) doesn't mean they give much hope to Whalen.
I've pimped for Republicans long before that.