Winning by attrition?

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Here's a good one that was passed my way recently -
According to a Wall Street Journal column by Arthur C. Brooks, Democrats have a serious long-term political problem simply because they are not having enough babies:

“According to the 2004 General Social Survey, if you picked 100 unrelated politically liberal adults at random, you would find that they had, between them, 147 children. If you picked 100 conservatives, you would find 208 kids. That's a "fertility gap" of 41%. Given that about 80% of people with an identifiable party preference grow up to vote the same way as their parents, this gap translates into lots more little Republicans than little Democrats to vote in future elections. …

A state that was split 50-50 between left and right in 2004 will tilt right by 2012, 54% to 46%. By 2020, it will be certifiably right-wing, 59% to 41%. A state that is currently 55-45 in favor of liberals (like California) will be 54-46 in favor of conservatives by 2020--and all for no other reason than babies.”
Maybe by 2050, one of my grandchildren or great-grandchildren will be elected to something in South Dakota. Since by then, my progeny will account for 30% of the electorate.

Either that, or there will be a heck of a lot of political blogs.

Comments

Anonymous said…
I doubt if the Wall Street Journal survey reached hispanics who vote democrat and have lots of kids.
9:47 AM
Anonymous said…
How are political views in any way a hereditary thing?
3:17 PM
Anonymous said…
I doubt very much that anyone would tell you views are inherited. They are learned - just like you learn so many other things from your parents. Any political scientist will tell you that the political views and affiliations of parents is the strongest indicator of what the children's views will be. Growing up in a conservative house generally instills conservative values, and growing up in a liberal home does the same. It's obviously not a 100% guarantee, but it's a general rule.
11:45 AM
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