2 weeks to go to the election. What's the prognosis?

Two weeks from tonight, those who haven’t voted absentee will be going to the polls to cast their ballots for the direction of South Dakota. Will they go strongly “R,” will they go “D,” or will it be a mixed bag?

I think the Dems are probably wishing that the Sutton allegations had come out a few weeks earlier or a few weeks later. Right at the time they were starting to launch their common ground platform, the long simmering allegations boiled over with the complaint being officially filed by the page’s father. And instantly, it sucked all of the oxygen out of their earned media efforts.

If you go to the SDDP's website, you see 1, maybe 2 press releases since everything broke. And now as we cruise into the last two weeks, it's going to be tough to get any momentum back.

Before the finger pointing starts from anonymous commenters, don’t think it’s a great thing for Republicans either. Right at the time when some of our challenger candidates need some exposure, it’s taken the focus from us too.

However, unlike the Democrats who are checking under the couch cushions for spare change to buy ads, Republicans are much better off financially. The GOP has money to buy media, whereas various Democrats had been scaling back previous commitments.

Speaking of scaling back media commitments, can you tell its two weeks before the election by the amount of media that Dr. Billion has on the air? I think you can stick a fork in that potato. The “two week out assessment” is that Billion’s campaign is probably done. There’s limited signs of life for this patient, and few people out there are going to protest the conventional wisdom that there's no need to pull the plug. The patient is terminal.

Herseth's chances look brighter than her Gubernatorial compatriot from her performances in the recent debates, but there's no sign that Bruce Whalen is going to give up the fight. So, there should be some slugging in that race until the end.

Ron Volesky/Larry Long? Ha. Ha ha. The only people who are voting against Ron in greater numbers than Republicans? Democrats who are tired of him running...

The Jarrod Johnson/Bryce Healy race is likely to be the closest of the constitutional races. Both Johnson and Healy have been working hard and doing everything right. The question is if the GOP advantage in numbers will beat the inherent name ID power of incumbency.

The Kolbeck/Koskan race is not too far behind in competitiveness. Koskan has the electoral numbers, but Kolbeck has the advantage of being a democrat for an office which has traditionally always had at least one. Both have come across as earnest campaigners, so I can't call that one either.

2 weeks and counting down!

Comments

Anonymous said…
The "R's" will rule!!!
Anonymous said…
Not sticking a fork in Whalen yet, huh? Are you a professional wrestling referee, PP? You just can't see it? Or maybe you're just being overly kind to an advertiser.
Anonymous said…
Billion will do better then Whalen by a long shot.
Anonymous said…
PP is obviously showing a little GOP bias in his treatment of Whalen as opposed to Billion, but I think his assessment is dead on: Herseth and Rounds win easily, Healy/Johnson is probably about a tossup (leaning maybe slightly to the incumbent), and Koskan/Kolbeck is a tossup (leaning if at all slightly to Koskan).

Billion's campaign has been a joke.
Anonymous said…
Please stop with making it sound as if the Congressional race is really a fight. The poor guy is going to get TROUNCED. It is pretty sad that the Republicans couldn't come up with SOMEBODY who could give Stephanie a run for her money. I hope the Republicans do right by Bruce and give him a job or something since he did put himself out there, knowing it was over before it even started.
Anonymous said…
Maybe the Party should give Whalen a parting prize, like a brain. Wait, obviously Randy Frederick got rid of his before this pick was made, so maybe we should give it back to him. Or courage, Randy could use that as a gift as well.

Billion will pull 7-10% more of the general vote than Whalen.
Anonymous said…
No need to stick a fork in the Whalen campaign, as it was done before it started.

Still "should be some slugging in that race?" I think it will be more like arms flailing in a last ditch effort to keep Herseth from setting a new record for votes in a Congressional election.
William said…
Judging from the Yes on 6 yard signs, rally participation and general dedication of the Vote for Life supporters, don't be surprised if Bruce Whalen picks up most of their votes as well. It will really depend on who's best at GOTV and I don't know of anyone supporting Yes on 6 that doesn't intend to vote, if they haven't already.
Anonymous said…
I agree with anonymous 11:32 that the PUC and School & Public Lands races will be the closest. I think it all depends on how much money the State Republican Party have given Koskan and Johnson. The rumor around Sioux Falls is that the State Party has given each $150,000 to spend...?
Anonymous said…
How much did the party give Whalen? $3.00?
Anonymous said…
If only you people knew more about this koskan guy. I'm from Winner SD, which is by Wood SD. There are NOT alot of people that like koskan down here. That is why he's not going to run for Senate anymore. He knows he won't win this county. He made everyone mad with the decision he made in the Senate. I would put money on it that he won't win this county in the P.U.C race. He doesn't deserve to be a Comissioner. He knows nothing about Utilities. There's alot more people for KOLBECK down here. It's too bad the people of South Dakota don't know koskan like we know koskan. A crook and a back stabber!!
Anonymous said…
Kolbeck is a real stand up guy. He cares about the issues and the people he will represent. He supports the things that matter to people. He deserves some recognition for his stance on the issues. He would be a great PUC.

And imagine what he could have done with $150,000. This race would have been over. Have you checked out the website with the Koskan grandchildren in Koskan onesies. What a good use of his money!
Anonymous said…
Prognosis is as follows:

Giebink loss
Heidepreim win
Turbak loss
Rounds win
Herseth win
Feinstein win

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