electionprojection.com - Rounds is up by 34.2%

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A political website I hadn't run across before is performing their own alchemy with the polling numbers and information that's out there and making a prediction on the South Dakota Gubernatorial race. Today, electionprojection.com is predicting a crushing margin of victory for Rounds at 34.2%

For the South Dakota race, the numbers are not trending in a way that challenger Jack Billion is likely to want to see:

· Date

Projection

Rating

July 23, 2006

Rounds +34.2

Strong GOP Hold

July 15, 2006

Rounds +33.0

Strong GOP Hold

Preliminary

-----

Strong GOP Hold

From Rounds coming out ahead by 33 a week or so ago, to 34.2 points yesterday? What are they basing all of this on? As you can see...

Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party

Index Raw value Weight Factor
Head-to head polls 35.0 80% 28.0
Incumbent approval 34 15% 5.1
State partisanship 21.5 5% 1.1

If you're noticing the weight provided to the head to head polls, and the recent change, I'm sure part of this is coming on the heels of Survey USA’s July 20th results showing that the closer we get to the November election, the more Governor Rounds’ disapproval rating drops. This month, in the poll just released on the 20th, his popularity is clearly back on an upward trend at 65% approval/31% disapproval, after a slight dip last month, fully 7 points above the low of 58% approval in March. Disapproval is down by 7 points in that period from 38% to 31% as well.

(Yes, I trimmed this graph down so it would fit on my page better. )

As of the latest poll released, Rounds is ranked the 11th most popular Governor in the Nation.

Please patronize these organizations, and go check out Election projection and Survey USA for yourself, as you form your own opinion as to who the victor will be this fall.

Comments

Anonymous said…
is there a Billion "campaign"? never hear about it...i thought Todd Epp would generate some buzz, but he's been a complete flop
8:06 PM
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