The Countdown stands at one week until election day.

One week until election day. One week!

I'm getting to the point where I'm starting to internally make my personal picks for who I think will come out on election night. If I knew anything about sports betting at all, I might "handicap" the races or suggest a percentage spread.

But I don't, so I won't.

Last primary election, in a contest among several politico friends, I was the winner in making the picks. The ONLY one I miscalled was the previous Schwiesow/Adelstein race, and that's because I went with campaign "effort" over "money." So, I'm pollyanish. There are worse afflictions.

In fact, when I look at races and consider who is going to prevail, unlike many people, I don't pay much attention to the issues. Why? Because at the level of campaigns that we see in South Dakota, it rarely matters. What matters is the candidate's campaigning ability. Their effort. It's based on their visibility and how well they've made their name and face identifiable with the office.

Because when it comes to issues, frankly, unless they're really on the whacked out fringes, or have recently made a lot of people really mad, nobody is paying that much attention. They're going to go out and vote based on name identification. Only when name identification is equally high for both candidates can you start to split hairs over who believes in what, etc.

What races do I feel comfortable in calling at this point?

I think The Napoli/McCoy race is pretty much over before it ever began. Alice's efforts have come across as one mistake after another when observing from 200 miles away. Wrong literature. No yard signs yet. Virtually invisible in the media when Napoli - love him or hate him - is a media darling. Sure he's going to take a few hits for things he shouldn't have said. But Alice absolutely failed to capitalize on them. It's just like she doesn't want it that badly. Give this one to Bill.

Greenfield/Holbeck is another one I think you can stick a fork in. Again, a compelling argument has yet to be made to remove Brock from office. (Yes, Brock is a friend by way of disclosure). Could it have been done? Possibly. But did Holbeck step up to the plate and campaign in the way required to beat him? I'm not seeing it. "The moderate choice" did not set the world on fire in this race.

One of the reports I've heard from the field is that the standard line to other candidates going door to door in that district is "You're not running against Brock, are you?" and if not, only then are they offered support. Like it or not, among District 6 Republicans, Brock is beloved.

Since my Lunch hour is winding down, I'll have to continue this later. In the meantime, anyone else care to chime in with their picks for the races that are already decided?

Comments

Anonymous said…
Manny Steele and Hal Wick over Ann Henkin and Kevin Maxwell.

Ellie Schwiesow over Stan Adelstein.
Anonymous said…
Paul Nielson over Duane Spader for senate in Sioux Falls District 9
Anonymous said…
Dennis Arnold over Claire Konold by a long shot.
PP said…
The idea is to also explain why...
Anonymous said…
District 6, Stormo/Nelson over Noem. Noem with 3 jobs, 3 kids and a husband has her plate overloaded without taking on another job in the political arena. Family values should be most important to her. Nelson and Stormo both are SD college grads also.

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