I don't think there will be a bracelet for this one: WWSD

WWSD - What Will Stan do?

On this website, as we as on many others, and in the mainstream media, there has been oodles of speculation as to whether or not Senator Adelstein will jump ship from the GOP.

“Will he stay and continue to spend money on candidates to try to reshape the GOP into his own vision of it.” “Will he become a Democrat, since many of his views parallel theirs.” Yes, I talk about this a lot. And by the amount of Mainstream Media coverage, it is a hot topic among politicos.

Just so we can establish the basis for where I’m coming from, my irritation with Stan is not over his views. They’re his, and he’s quite welcome to them at the end of the day. My griping comes from his continual bashing of the GOP and doing his darndest to split the party down the middle through the Mainstream Coalition, and his political attacks at his fellow GOP legislators. Yes, it came back at him in spades this year, but if you go back and look, I’d say he started it.

Regardless, tomorrow is supposed to bring a big announcement on it all. Will he or won’t he? With both Adelstein and Katus appearing at the campaign rally, many are saying his going “D” is all done but the announcement.. But as noted to me by a political friend today – what if he takes door #3? And the more I think about it, I tend to agree. Door #3 might be just what we see tomorrow.

Let’s face it. If you come off a losing election, and switch parties, there’s not much of a precedent in South Dakota for a succesful comeback. Even Scott Heidepreim, who is probably the highest profile party switcher in South Dakota history isn’t guaranteed a win this fall.

So, there’s the distinct possibility that this is NOT an attractive option to Adelstein, despite his apparent hard feelings over the election and positions the party has taken on several issues.

And then you have the other option. Stan decides to say “thank you to my supporters, but I have decided to forego running this year. However when I make another run in two years, I will be running as a Republican.” Given that Stan has constantly sought and been in the limelight ever since entering into the legislature (heck, I called him #2 on the top ten political personalities of last year because of that ability), most people are going to be doubting thomases on that one. And given that he’s appearing with Katus, it might seem unlikely.

Enter door #3. Which really isn’t much different than Door #2, but with a twist. And, one I think is the most likely option for Adelstein to take tomorrow. I think he’s going to pass on becoming a Democrat. But he’s going to throw his support behind the Democrat, Katus, for the office.

Why? For starters, on a personal basis, this gets him out of doing something abhorrent to him, which would be to be a good sport and support the winning Republican. This would be despite Elli stating she would have supported him (albeit reluctantly).

Plus, it gives him some room to come back in two years to run, no matter who is in the office. If Elli is there, he can come and challenge her on her conservative beliefs (and likely will). If Katus wins (which is not likely), he can concoct some story about not being true to the values he hoped he would hold and run and say he’s saving the day for the GOP.

Yes, this will lose him some hardcore Republican support in two years. But not as much as going Democrat would. Keep in mind, this is a West River Republican District. Running as a Democrat is a dicey proposition, and Stan can read the numbers as well as anyone. Running even as a mildly controversial Democrat here is the kiss of death.

But run as a mildly controversial Republican, and you’ll have an even shot. Stan won one of these, and lost one – he’s got to recognize that it’s a better gamble than going Dem.

Are there risks? Well, yes. Republicans who get involved in “Republicans for a Democrat” never have the stature within the party that they typically once enjoyed before they did that. But given time, sometimes sins are forgiven. Or at least forgotten

So there you have it. My prediction for tomorrow is that Stan’s going to do his best to drive down the middle of that road and preserve his current political affiliation while throwing his support to Tom Katus.

Comments

Anonymous said…
PP, don't forget about the poll. The poll was commissioned for a reason. (To give Stanford a glimmer of hope that his life as a politician is not over.) There is no Door #3--at least not on its own merit. The only way Door #3 enters into play is if Stan loses for a second time this election cycle (once at the polls and once in a phone survey). And if he fails to prevail in a poll conducted by his own people, stick a fork in that fossil.
Anonymous said…
Stop giving this loser airtime. Let him just fade away like the others.
He lives for this kind of stuff, so ignore him and like the child he is, he will go away.
Anonymous said…
I agree with anon 3:32. Stop feeding his ego with all this speculation. Besides, Stan will always be a player because he has money to give.
Anonymous said…
PP, No bracelet?? How about a ribbon.

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