It sounds like JP Duniphan is going to set herself up for the slaughter again

Former State Senator Jeanie P. Duniphan is making noise as per Mt. Blogmore that she's going to give the State Senate another run. Too bad that it's a silly mistake on her part.

Why? There's a few reasons. First and foremost, take a look at the 2006 election results.

For a while, it seemed as if Dennis Schmidt couldn't do anything right. First, he had problems with his party registration. Then, he had problems with his election petitions. Why do I bring this up? Because despite this, he still absolutely destroyed her at the ballot box - nearly 2 to 1.
SENATE DISTRICT #33 MEADE PENNINGTON






J.P. Duniphan 127 652




779 38.66%
Dennis Schmidt 157 1079




1236 61.34%








2015
Read that at the Secretary of State's website. Losing 38% to 61% isn't a good position to try to make a comeback from. Because it sounds suspiciously like a message from the electorate.

Next, if you recall, after the election, JP groused that Dennis didn't accurately portray her voting record. But the problem is that it wasn't the case. She might not have liked how it was portrayed, but I don't think I saw one instance of the portrayals being inaccurate.

2005's HJR 1001 which submitted the question to the electorate to put it in South Dakota's constitution that "Only marriage between a man and a woman shall be valid or recognized in South Dakota. The uniting of two or more persons in a civil union, domestic partnership, or other quasi-marital relationship shall not be valid or recognized in South Dakota" seemed to have been one of the sticking points. But the bottom line was that Duniphan voted NO to the measure, along with a majority of the other Mainstream Coalition members in the legislature. Not the position you want to be in with conservative primary voters.

Third, there is that whole Mainstream Coalition thing. I would venture a guess that this incarnation of the liberal faction of the GOP is going to hang like an anchor around the participant's necks until it's a long forgotten memory. Say, in about a decade. Until then, don't look for the participants (including JP) to get much traction with GOP primary voters. If I was in the campaign, I'd use it. And Dennis likely will.

Finally, whether or not Jeanie wants to admit it, Dennis is the incumbent now. So the uphill battle is hers, not his.

Do I see a triumphant JP making an electoral comeback to add more years to the top of her 11 year stint in the legislature. No. Not really. While JP might say the following as she related to Kevin WOster:
"Duniphan said the rejection by state voters last year of a near-total abortion ban approved by the 2006 state Legislature is one clear indication of a voter preference for moderate views"
She can keep telling herself that. But history tells us otherwise as far as the GOP primary process is concerned. I suspect Dennis will get another term, with a comfortable margin of victory.

Comments

PP said…
8:07 -

#1 - You're off topic.

#2 - Neither your anonymity, nor your curiosity compel me to do anything other than what I'm doing.

Don't like it? You're welcome to start your own blog.
PP said…
And if nobody noticed, off topic comments are going to be gone.
Anonymous said…
So nyeah.
PP said…
I think that's my line.
Anonymous said…
Muwahahahahahahahah!!!
Anonymous said…
Well, on topic then - Dennis didn't do much to distinguish himself in his first session, but I suspect PP is right - JP will have a tough time getting back in.
Anonymous said…
By PP's standards, Schmidt is a resounding failure.

The guy who did attested falsely under oath on his petitions that he was a republican, but didn't get prosecuted, then screwed up his petition but didn't get kicked off the ballot, has continued his Blazing Saddles routine in the legislature. Schmidt sponsored only one bill - a house bill - that was killed 13-0 in a house committee. If Napoli didn't come before Schmidt in the alphabet he wouldn't be able to figure out how to vote.

How many times will his district elect incompetence personified? I predict only once.
Anonymous said…
PP has no standards
AL said…
Dennis is a great man and will be aone hell of a legislator in the years to come....
Anonymous said…
10:34, tell the whole story. The bill you spoke of was Mike Buckingham's bill. The only sponsors were the legislators from District 33. Obviously, it was a constituent bill....and at a glance, it doesn't appear to be anything sinister. The following language would have been added to existing law:

"If the school district receives more applications than it has the capacity to accept, the school district may give priority to any application from a student who is the child of a person on active duty in the armed forces of the United States and whose duty station is located within that school district or to any application from a student who is the child of an employee of that school district."

That sounds reasonable. It wasn't even a mandate. It says the school "MAY give priority..." No matter whose bill it was, it doesn't appear that the sky would've fallen if it had passed, and it apparently had some significance to some school in district 33. Can't blame the guys for trying to help out their constituents.
ARQKON said…
I am ok with JP running, but why imply the voters did not know what they were getting? Dennis was open and honest about where he stood on all issues. The voters certainly knew what they were voting for. I believe the outcome will be the same. JP will get a few more votes energized by some Adelstein money, but I believe she will still lose.
Boiled Owl said…
This comment has been removed by the author.
scimitar said…
"I want me gold"

Leprechaun (the movie)
Anonymous said…
Just Pissed.
Anonymous said…
What will Duniphan do different this time? Last election she campaigned from the bar at the Day's Inn on Jackson Blvd. Looks like she got all the votes there. Unfortunately none of them were in her district. My money is on Schmidt.
Anonymous said…
Can anybody tell me what Duniphan does for a living? I'm hearing all sorts of rumors.
Anonymous said…
She eats to live, and lives to eat!

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