Vote early. But not as often as you'd like.
How do you think it's going to go tonight?

I had heard several weeks ago that early voting was heavy. Not just a little heavy, but very heavy. And one person in the know informed me that Republicans were coming in over Democrats 80%-20%. (In the Black Hills about 60%-40%).

On this ballot, I think this bodes very well for Republican candidates.

Granted, much of the traffic is being driven by Yes on 6 and Campaign for Healthy Families, but they're still likely to vote for the Republican as they work down the ballot.

Check out what the Rapid City Journal has to say about all of this in today's paper:
Secretary of State Chris Nelson said Monday that by the time the polls opened across the state this morning, about one in four South Dakota voters would have cast their votes.

“Two years ago, it was 24 percent, and we should end up at or above that this year,” Nelson said. “This year, it started out fairly slowly, about half the pace it was two years ago. Then over the last three weeks, it picked up dramatically.”

Nelson thinks the slow start to early voting was tied to the busy and complicated nature of the general-election ballot. With 11 ballot issues — from a near total ban on abortion to the repeal of video lottery and a move to legalize marijuana for medical uses — added to races for governor, the U.S. House of Representatives and a variety of state and local elected offices, voters have plenty to decide — and a lot to learn.

Many voters inclined to vote early apparently used the first three weeks of the voting period to study the issues, Nelson said.

“I think that’s a lot of the reason we started out as slowly as we did,” he said. “We had voters saying, ‘Wait a minute, it’s going to take a little bit to figure this out.’”

Campaign coordinators in South Dakota are increasingly aware of early voting, which a majority of states now allow in one way or another. In South Dakota, it begins six weeks before Election Day.
Read it all here. This is great for the GOP this year.

Now Kate Turnbow is reporting in today's Cap Journal that State Democrats, specifically Don Carr was actually able to say with a straight face that
"A takeover of the Senate does look within reach for us, based on the strength of our candidates this election and how our message has resonated with the people."
Bwaaaaha HA HA HA HA! Bwaaahhh HA HA HA! Hee Hee Hee! *sniff* Oh my god was that a good one. Best joke I've heard in months.

The party in serious debt who has had hardly 2 dimes to rub together and whose engine basically sputtered out a month before the election is now going to recapture the senate? Please.

Methinks they're overestimating their chances. I'm thinking they have a net pickup of maybe one or two seats. If it's a weird year, three tops.

So, here's a great opportunity for the readers to speak. Which senate seats are going to turn from GOP to Dem, and from Dem to GOP? On the latter, I'm saying Hundstad (who has run a terrible campaign this year) is a loss for the Dems in favor of Brian Johnson (who has run a pretty tight ship).

What say you?


Boiled Owl said…
Katus will thump Schwiesow.

Finch will triumph.

Rapid Valley kool-aid drinkers will keep their Napolian nutjob.

No on 6 will rule West River.

Fuller will gavel Russell into oblivian.

PP will vote for at least one Dem.

(ok, maybe not.)

...more later maybe.
Anonymous said…
Kelly is toast in SF. Whalen won't touch 40%. Billion will barely reach that number. Turback will come to Pierre and she will make Jerry Apa's head explode 2 weeks into session...also, expect a serious undervote against Tim Rounds.
Anonymous said…
Heidepriem, Jerstad, Turbak, Katus...maybe even Cradduck. And House Minority Leader Pam Hemmingsen.
Anonymous said…
I don't know if they're will be more Rs than Ds, but... I've been hearing people say the words "Moderate Majority" quite a bit.

Also. If things pan out like I've been hearing they will, and the Ds pick up senate seats once occupied by mainstreamers, then I expect you, PP, to author a HUGE story about how "Rs" taking our "Rs" backfired on the Rs, and how stupid it was to think it was a good idea for Republicans to wipe away name recognition in a year where nearly every race will be contested, and turnout will be unusally high.
Boiled Owl said…
• 3 polls in a row show "C" down for the count.

• I'll be paying a buck more for smokes.

• Oh, did I mention, Elli's not going to win?
Anonymous said…
Thanks for the great election coverage pp Your coverage was better than any newspaper I've looked at.

Keep up the good work!
Anonymous said…
Dems will pick off Llatterrell, Schmidt, and Kelly.

Repubs will pick up Brian Johnson and Hunhoff.

Net loss? One.

Turbak? Openly pro-choice in the most catholic community in the State? *plonk* She goes down especially after her "Dear Female Voter" debacle.

Katus? Kat-anyone-but-us. His Adelstein fueled angry campaign was a turnoff in the beginning, and has remained so.

... Oh, I'm sorry. Did the Dems have any other credible candidates running?

Klaudt walks all over Maher. And it hurts.

Peterson drops from a heart attack as Diedrick steps over his cooling corpse.

I have to admit that Dan Sutton will probably grab victory from the....

Let's just be happy that he'll be grabbing victory from someone older than him.
Anonymous said…

Top picks: Heidepriem, Hoerth, Gibson, Finch, Katus.

Possibilities: Jerstad, Kroger, Sietstra, Nielson, Turbak.

Cradduck has no chance. Dems have only a slim chance to take over the senate - but EVERYTHING has to go their way to do it.


Hunhoff, Brian Johnson
anneme said…
Stephanie Herseth will dominate
Referred Law 6 will be repealed
Dems will take the US House and the US Senate
Dems will take the SD Senate
Scott Heidepriem will beat Dick Kelly
David Reis will (hopefully) take district 21 house even though Rounds has endorsed his opponent....(Junke--I am not sure how to spell it)
amendment E will fail
Amendment C will fail
cigarette tax will increase
video lottery will stay as is
There will be stricter enforcement on using state vehicles for personal excursions
Rounds will beat Billion
Anonymous said…
Anon 9:14,

Have you been to Watertown? The most Catholic part of the state? Are you high? They’re all Scandinavian and Protestant, Aberdeen is considerably more Catholic. Turbak wins and Johnson wins.
Anonymous said…
Sorry, that question was for Anon 9:04. Damn speed typing.
Anonymous said…
Napoli wins over Crisco. Yeah, Yeah!! Sen. Napoli is the most p conservative person in the State Senate.
Anonymous said…
Lattrell finally reaches his thumb. Sutton wins. E barely fails proving yet again I'm smarter than 48% of the people in SD, and 6 goes down bigger than people think (although I did appreciate having my Argus wrapped by them this am).
Anonymous said…
Turbak figures out why they charged her double for the pair of socks, and it wasn't because they were argyle.
Anonymous said…
Roger Hunt takes a hit after the sham corporation donation, but is it enough to get Giebink elected?
Haggs said…
PP, I can imagine that most early voters are Republicans. I think I've heard that a lot of the older citizens vote early and, generally, that demographic would be more Republican than Democrat. I know my Grandma, her sister and all their friends voted weeks ago.

But that's just an uneducated guess.
Anonymous said…
For what it is worth here are my thoughts...

Rounds, Herseth, Long, Johnson, Koskan and yes even Elli in WR will be the winners...

What do we WIN if we are right?
haha! Yes, even I can be a pundit! yeah!
Anonymous said…
southdakotamac has already called the first election of the day. ROCK ON MAC
Anonymous said…
Turn out has been heavy in the R dominated precints in Sioux Falls.

Furthermore the only poll watchers in the several precincts I visited this morning have been from Yes on 6. One poll watcher told me they have every precinct in the state covered even on the reservations.

6 probably has the most sophisticated and by early accounts the most operable GOTV operation today. At noon today the phones will be ringing off the hook to pick up the committeds who have not voted and undecideds likely to vote.

Back to heavy turnout in R precincts that's good for Republican legislators and the Yes on 6 crowd. Kelly's precincts have been on fire.

For example at my precinct 200 people had voted at 10:00. Extrapolating that number means over 800 by 7:00 plus at least 200 more to compensate for the early evening hours when most people go to vote.

In the close races we won't know right away because of the large numbers of absentees cast and b/c those are counted last.

Doug Hoffman in SF for judge, Yes on 6 has fighting chance b/c heavy turnout and GOTV, no on d, E who knows heard conflicting polls (crazy anyway), Kelly by a nose b/c gotv is better. Turbak is going down b/c she makes health care more expensive for the rest of us and her angry female voice turns off older voters which there are a ton of up there.
Anonymous said…
I think the anonymous donor flap will cause Roger Hunt to lose his seat. Even though she apparently has trouble spelling her name on her website, I think Mary Ann(e) Giebink is going to win a squeaker.

(On a related note, is it just me, or does anyone else think Mary Ann Giebink looks like John Goodman in drag?)
anneme said…
kolbeck, healy, long will win to add to my previous list
Anonymous said…
from the way it is looking down here, hunhoff should win in considerably easy fashion. she is a proven commodity and her opponent Mr. Bernard has done nothing but ask questions and have no answers to follow up. So that should be a republican pick-up.
Anonymous said…
Bernard has done nothing other then be a very popular mayor for the last 2 years. Yankton is still a toss up.
Anonymous said…
Moderate majority in the Senate.

14 dems in the Senate. Moderate Republicans carry the moderate voice over the edge.

Big loss for right wing extremists.
Anonymous said…
I chose to move to SD recently after living various places around the country, including a couple of very blue states. I may have to move again. Does anybody know where I can find a Top Ten sort of list of the most conservative congressional districts are (other than one or two in way I'd live there).
Anonymous said…
anon 2:33
Have you broke out the medical marijuana a little early? Even if the dem's do pick up a couple of seats, all the "moderate" repub's were weeded out in the primary.

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